19 to 21

No, that’s not how many Mets fans have jumped off the upper deck of Shea Stadium, it’s,

Baseball... Then and Now

Volume 5, #36, September 21, 2007

News Item: September 21, 1964 – The Cincinnati Reds defeat the Philadelphia Phillies 1-0 when Chico Ruiz steals home with Frank Robinson at bat.

Are the New York Mets about to pull off the biggest choke job in the history of Major League Baseball? Or will that dubious distinction fall to the Boston Red Sox? Two weeks ago it would have seemed inconceivable that the best team in the National League and the best team in the American League could, at this point in the season, both be in the position of blowing, if not huge leads, at least what would seem to be insurmountable leads. The Red Sox were up seven on the Yankees less than three weeks ago and the Mets, for goodness sakes, were up seven with just 17 games to go. And now, they both lead by just a game-and-a-half. It must be Schizophrenia Season in New York.

While it may be hard to explain the Red Sox’ bullpen woes, or the across-the-board collapse of the Mets, what’s a lot easier to explain is the oft-forgotten other half of the equation. That is, there is no way a team can blow that large a lead that late in the season without some other team(s) taking part in the fun as well. Look at it this way. Suppose your team, for want of a better term, we’ll call them the Mets, have a seven game lead with 17 games to go. And, suppose said team collapses, going say, 6-11 the rest of the way. That’s pretty bad. However, even if the second place team, for the lack of anything more original, we’ll call them the Phillies, also gets red hot and goes 13-4 over that same stretch, all that happens is that they end up the regular season in a tie. And that’s a conjunction of hot and cold that just doesn’t happen very often.

Although the Red Sox’ monumental belly flop in 1978 may still stand as the loss of the largest lead, it’s important to remember that that Boston crew had most of the summer to accomplish that feat. The better historical parallel is still the 1964 Phillies. They were up by six-and-a-half games with 12 games to go, and ended up a game behind the Cardinals and tied with the Reds for second. What everyone remembers about the 1964 pennant race is that the Phillies lost 10 straight games. What is not commonly remembered is what the Cards and Reds did. The Phillies’ losing streak began, famously, on Sept. 21, 1964 (that’s right, you can look it up on Retrosheet) in a 1-0 loss to the Reds at Connie Mack Stadium, when Chico Ruiz stole home with the game’s only run in the top of the sixth inning with Frank Robinson at the plate. The Phillies then proceeded to lose nine more to the Reds, Braves and Cards, and although none of those losses were as improbable as the Sept. 21 game, there were still some odd moments, particularly in the Braves series, including a 12 inning, 7-5 loss and a 14-8 loss despite Johnny Callison hitting three home runs off Braves pitching. It is worth noting, however, that, except for the first game, none of the 10 losses were one-run games and that the Phillies, except for the 14-8 game, averaged less than three runs a game during the losing streak. In other words, despite the “common knowledge” that Gene Mauch panicked in his choice of starting pitchers, i.e., pitching aces Jim Bunning and Chris Short repeatedly on short rest, the problem was moreso that the Phillies stopped hitting. And even that shouldn’t have come as a shock – Rookie of the Year Dick Allen (162 OPS+) and MVP candidate Callison (125 OPS+) had basically carried the offense throughout the year.

Now, none of this would have mattered, if it wasn’t for the fact that six of those 10 games were against the Cards and Reds, two of the three teams (the other was the Giants) pursuing the Phillies. Or if it wasn’t for the fact that BOTH St. Louis and Cincy got red hot in late September. And exactly what did those two worthies do between Sept. 21 and Sept. 30 (the last day of the 10-game streak)? No one seems to remember that the Cardinals, between Sept. 22 and Sept. 30 won eight straight games against the Pirates and Phillies. Or that the Reds, between Sept. 20 and Sept. 27, won nine straight against the Cardinals, Phillies and Mets. (The Giants, who ended up fourth, went 7-2 from Sept. 22 to Oct. 2 against the Astros and the Cubs.) For that matter, no one remembers that the Cardinals, at the end of their winning streak, then blew two games to the awful Mets before winning the season finale, and the Reds, at the end of their winning streak, lost four out of five to the Pirates and Phillies.

The final National League standings for 1964 ended up looking like this…

In other words, if the Cards had gone just 6-2 between Sept. 22 and Sept. 20, even if the results of all the Phillies/Cards games stayed the same, they would have finished a game behind Philadelphia. And, if the Reds had won eight straight instead of nine straight, again, without changing any of their wins over the Phillies, then they would have finished a game behind Philadelphia as well. (Of course, if the Giants hadn’t lost two games to the Cubs in late September, then they would have ended up tied with the Phillies.)

Thus, it should be clear that a team just cannot lose as big a lead as seven games with 17 to go, or six-and-a-half games with 12 to go without at least one other team also catching fire. So, are either of those scenarios likely to continue playing out as the 2007 season closes?

Logically, the more likely of the two pursued to pull off the Big Choke are the Red Sox. Or rather, the more likely of the two pursuers to catch the leaders at the wire are the Yankees. Why is that? Simple, because the Yankees are indeed red hot, and have been red hot for weeks, in part because they have been getting impeccable pitching. The Sox pitching, on the other hand, especially out of the bullpen, has been very peccable (yes, that’s a real word, I don’t care what your Spell Check says, look it up in a real dictionary.) On the other hand, although the Mets, notably manager Willie Randolph, unquestionably have the deer-in-the-headlight look of David Bell with a two-strike count on him, their pursuer, the Phillies, are a notoriously erratic team, almost entirely because their pitching is so peccable, in both the rotation and the bullpen. It is very hard to string together long winning streaks when 11 of the current pitchers on your staff have ERAs above 5.00.

Still, if either the Red Sox or the Mets manage to lose their pennant (at least the Yankees/Red Sox have the Wild Card to fall back on), 2007 should at the very least take its place beside 1964 in baseball lore. And, wouldn’t it be poetic justice if, this time, the Phillies benefited from an historic collapse?

19 to 21 is now appearing on the website of the best high school sports writer in creation, the one and only Ted Silary of the Philadelphia Daily News. Go to http://www.tedsilary.com/johnshiffert.htm for more...

-- John Shiffert